HUL vs TOT
Hull City (home) vs Tottenham Hotspur · model confidence 64%
Match Outcome
HUL win 27.7% fair 3.61
Draw 21.7% fair 4.62
TOT win 50.6% fair 1.98
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 23.1% / 21.0% / 55.9%.
Expected Goals
HUL
1.28
—
2.08
TOT
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.2% | fair 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.8% | fair 2.87 |
| Both teams to score | 63.1% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| HUL 1-2 TOT | 9.6% | |
| HUL 1-1 TOT | 9.3% | |
| HUL 0-2 TOT | 7.5% | |
| HUL 0-1 TOT | 7.3% | |
| HUL 1-3 TOT | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: HUL goals · Columns: TOT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).