EDGERATING
Methodology

HUL vs TOT

Hull City (home) vs Tottenham Hotspur · model confidence 64%

Match Outcome

HUL win 27.7% fair 3.61
Draw 21.7% fair 4.62
TOT win 50.6% fair 1.98

Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 23.1% / 21.0% / 55.9%.

Expected Goals

HUL 1.28 2.08 TOT
Over 2.5 goals65.2%fair 1.53
Under 2.5 goals34.8%fair 2.87
Both teams to score63.1%fair 1.59

Most Likely Scores

HUL 1-2 TOT9.6%
HUL 1-1 TOT9.3%
HUL 0-2 TOT7.5%
HUL 0-1 TOT7.3%
HUL 1-3 TOT6.7%

Scoreline Matrix

012345+
0 3.5 7.3 7.5 5.2 2.7 1.7
1 4.4 9.3 9.6 6.7 3.5 2.1
2 2.8 5.9 6.1 4.3 2.2 1.4
3 1.2 2.5 2.6 1.8 0.9 0.6
4 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2
5+ 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1

Rows: HUL goals · Columns: TOT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).

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