COV vs AVL
Coventry City (home) vs Aston Villa · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
COV win 24.9% fair 4.01
Draw 22.8% fair 4.39
AVL win 52.3% fair 1.91
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 21.5% / 22.6% / 55.9%.
Expected Goals
COV
1.07
—
1.86
AVL
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.1% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.9% | fair 2.28 |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| COV 1-1 AVL | 10.6% | |
| COV 0-1 AVL | 9.9% | |
| COV 1-2 AVL | 9.9% | |
| COV 0-2 AVL | 9.3% | |
| COV 1-3 AVL | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: COV goals · Columns: AVL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).