COV vs AVL
Coventry City (home) vs Aston Villa · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
COV win 24.5% fair 4.08
Draw 21.2% fair 4.71
AVL win 54.3% fair 1.84
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 19.7% / 20.6% / 59.7%.
Expected Goals
COV
1.13
—
2.10
AVL
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.7% | fair 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.3% | fair 2.68 |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| COV 1-2 AVL | 9.9% | |
| COV 1-1 AVL | 9.4% | |
| COV 0-2 AVL | 8.7% | |
| COV 0-1 AVL | 8.3% | |
| COV 1-3 AVL | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 2.3 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: COV goals · Columns: AVL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).