FUL vs BRE
Fulham (home) vs Brentford · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
FUL win 43.7% fair 2.29
Draw 24.0% fair 4.17
BRE win 32.3% fair 3.10
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 43.5% / 24.0% / 32.5%.
Expected Goals
FUL
1.64
—
1.39
BRE
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.2% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.8% | fair 2.39 |
| Both teams to score | 60.4% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| FUL 1-1 BRE | 11.0% | |
| FUL 2-1 BRE | 9.0% | |
| FUL 1-0 BRE | 8.0% | |
| FUL 1-2 BRE | 7.6% | |
| FUL 0-1 BRE | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FUL goals · Columns: BRE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).