FUL vs BRE
Fulham (home) vs Brentford · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FUL win 38.6% fair 2.59
Draw 25.3% fair 3.96
BRE win 36.1% fair 2.77
Expected Goals
FUL
1.40
—
1.37
BRE
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.4% | fair 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.6% | fair 2.10 |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| FUL 1-1 BRE | 12.0% | |
| FUL 1-0 BRE | 8.7% | |
| FUL 0-1 BRE | 8.6% | |
| FUL 2-1 BRE | 8.4% | |
| FUL 1-2 BRE | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FUL goals · Columns: BRE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).