NFO vs BHA
Nottingham Forest (home) vs Brighton & Hove Albion · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
NFO win 36.4% fair 2.75
Draw 25.0% fair 3.99
BHA win 38.6% fair 2.59
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 35.1% / 25.2% / 39.7%.
Expected Goals
NFO
1.35
—
1.46
BHA
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.7% | fair 2.14 |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| NFO 1-1 BHA | 11.9% | |
| NFO 0-1 BHA | 8.8% | |
| NFO 1-2 BHA | 8.6% | |
| NFO 1-0 BHA | 8.2% | |
| NFO 2-1 BHA | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.9 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NFO goals · Columns: BHA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).