NFO vs BHA
Nottingham Forest (home) vs Brighton & Hove Albion · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NFO win 29.3% fair 3.41
Draw 24.4% fair 4.09
BHA win 46.2% fair 2.16
Expected Goals
NFO
1.17
—
1.64
BHA
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.7% | fair 2.14 |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| NFO 1-1 BHA | 11.6% | |
| NFO 0-1 BHA | 9.8% | |
| NFO 1-2 BHA | 9.5% | |
| NFO 0-2 BHA | 8.1% | |
| NFO 1-0 BHA | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.8 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NFO goals · Columns: BHA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).