AVL vs CRY
Aston Villa (home) vs Crystal Palace · model confidence 80%
Match Outcome
AVL win 48.1% fair 2.08
Draw 23.6% fair 4.24
CRY win 28.3% fair 3.53
Expected Goals
AVL
1.74
—
1.27
CRY
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.0% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.0% | fair 2.38 |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| AVL 1-1 CRY | 10.9% | |
| AVL 2-1 CRY | 9.5% | |
| AVL 1-0 CRY | 8.6% | |
| AVL 2-0 CRY | 7.5% | |
| AVL 1-2 CRY | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.9 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AVL goals · Columns: CRY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).