AVL vs CRY
Aston Villa (home) vs Crystal Palace · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
AVL win 52.6% fair 1.90
Draw 22.9% fair 4.38
CRY win 24.6% fair 4.07
Expected Goals
AVL
1.85
—
1.17
CRY
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.0% | fair 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.0% | fair 2.38 |
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | fair 1.72 |
Most Likely Scores
| AVL 1-1 CRY | 10.6% | |
| AVL 2-1 CRY | 9.8% | |
| AVL 1-0 CRY | 9.1% | |
| AVL 2-0 CRY | 8.4% | |
| AVL 1-2 CRY | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.6 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AVL goals · Columns: CRY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).