LEE vs IPS
Leeds United (home) vs Ipswich Town · model confidence 63%
Match Outcome
LEE win 51.1% fair 1.96
Draw 23.2% fair 4.31
IPS win 25.7% fair 3.89
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 52.8% / 23.0% / 24.2%.
Expected Goals
LEE
1.82
—
1.16
IPS
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.4% | fair 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.6% | fair 2.35 |
| Both teams to score | 57.7% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEE 1-1 IPS | 10.7% | |
| LEE 2-1 IPS | 9.8% | |
| LEE 1-0 IPS | 9.2% | |
| LEE 2-0 IPS | 8.4% | |
| LEE 1-2 IPS | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.7 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEE goals · Columns: IPS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).