LEE vs IPS
Leeds United (home) vs Ipswich Town · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEE win 52.3% fair 1.91
Draw 23.4% fair 4.27
IPS win 24.3% fair 4.11
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 53.7% / 23.3% / 23.0%.
Expected Goals
LEE
1.78
—
1.09
IPS
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.6% | fair 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.4% | fair 2.20 |
| Both teams to score | 55.1% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEE 1-1 IPS | 11.0% | |
| LEE 1-0 IPS | 10.1% | |
| LEE 2-1 IPS | 9.8% | |
| LEE 2-0 IPS | 9.0% | |
| LEE 0-1 IPS | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.0 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEE goals · Columns: IPS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).