CHE vs LIV
Chelsea (home) vs Liverpool · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CHE win 36.2% fair 2.76
Draw 23.9% fair 4.19
LIV win 39.9% fair 2.50
Expected Goals
CHE
1.48
—
1.60
LIV
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.5% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.5% | fair 2.47 |
| Both teams to score | 61.7% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| CHE 1-1 LIV | 10.9% | |
| CHE 1-2 LIV | 8.7% | |
| CHE 2-1 LIV | 8.0% | |
| CHE 0-1 LIV | 7.3% | |
| CHE 1-0 LIV | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.9 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CHE goals · Columns: LIV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).