CHE vs LIV
Chelsea (home) vs Liverpool · model confidence 82%
Match Outcome
CHE win 36.5% fair 2.74
Draw 23.4% fair 4.27
LIV win 40.1% fair 2.49
Expected Goals
CHE
1.54
—
1.67
LIV
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.3% | fair 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.7% | fair 2.65 |
| Both teams to score | 63.8% | fair 1.57 |
Most Likely Scores
| CHE 1-1 LIV | 10.4% | |
| CHE 1-2 LIV | 8.7% | |
| CHE 2-1 LIV | 8.0% | |
| CHE 0-1 LIV | 6.7% | |
| CHE 2-2 LIV | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.4 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: CHE goals · Columns: LIV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).