NEW vs SUN
Newcastle United (home) vs Sunderland · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NEW win 60.2% fair 1.66
Draw 21.0% fair 4.77
SUN win 18.9% fair 5.30
Expected Goals
NEW
2.06
—
0.99
SUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.8% | fair 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.2% | fair 2.43 |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| NEW 2-0 SUN | 10.1% | |
| NEW 2-1 SUN | 9.9% | |
| NEW 1-0 SUN | 9.8% | |
| NEW 1-1 SUN | 9.6% | |
| NEW 3-0 SUN | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NEW goals · Columns: SUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).