NEW vs SUN
Newcastle United (home) vs Sunderland · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
NEW win 63.5% fair 1.57
Draw 19.3% fair 5.19
SUN win 17.2% fair 5.80
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 66.6% / 18.5% / 14.9%.
Expected Goals
NEW
2.30
—
1.00
SUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.0% | fair 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.0% | fair 2.77 |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| NEW 2-0 SUN | 9.8% | |
| NEW 2-1 SUN | 9.8% | |
| NEW 1-0 SUN | 8.5% | |
| NEW 1-1 SUN | 8.5% | |
| NEW 3-0 SUN | 7.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NEW goals · Columns: SUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).