MUN vs COV
Manchester United (home) vs Coventry City · model confidence 64%
Match Outcome
MUN win 61.6% fair 1.62
Draw 19.8% fair 5.04
COV win 18.6% fair 5.37
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 66.0% / 18.7% / 15.3%.
Expected Goals
MUN
2.28
—
1.00
COV
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.6% | fair 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.4% | fair 2.75 |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | fair 1.76 |
Most Likely Scores
| MUN 2-1 COV | 9.8% | |
| MUN 2-0 COV | 9.8% | |
| MUN 1-1 COV | 8.6% | |
| MUN 1-0 COV | 8.6% | |
| MUN 3-1 COV | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MUN goals · Columns: COV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).