MUN vs COV
Manchester United (home) vs Coventry City · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MUN win 59.6% fair 1.68
Draw 21.1% fair 4.74
COV win 19.3% fair 5.18
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 62.4% / 20.5% / 17.1%.
Expected Goals
MUN
2.06
—
0.98
COV
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.6% | fair 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.4% | fair 2.42 |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| MUN 2-0 COV | 10.2% | |
| MUN 2-1 COV | 9.9% | |
| MUN 1-0 COV | 9.9% | |
| MUN 1-1 COV | 9.6% | |
| MUN 3-0 COV | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MUN goals · Columns: COV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).