EDGERATING
Methodology

TOT vs ARS

Tottenham Hotspur (home) vs Arsenal · model confidence 80%

Match Outcome

TOT win 20.7% fair 4.84
Draw 20.4% fair 4.91
ARS win 59.0% fair 1.70

Expected Goals

TOT 1.05 2.16 ARS
Over 2.5 goals62.3%fair 1.60
Under 2.5 goals37.7%fair 2.65
Both teams to score57.6%fair 1.74

Most Likely Scores

TOT 1-2 ARS9.9%
TOT 0-2 ARS9.4%
TOT 1-1 ARS9.1%
TOT 0-1 ARS8.7%
TOT 1-3 ARS7.1%

Scoreline Matrix

012345+
0 4.0 8.7 9.4 6.8 3.7 2.4
1 4.2 9.1 9.9 7.1 3.8 2.5
2 2.2 4.8 5.2 3.8 2.0 1.3
3 0.8 1.7 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.5
4 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1
5+ 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0

Rows: TOT goals · Columns: ARS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).

Try Another Matchup

vs