TOT vs ARS
Tottenham Hotspur (home) vs Arsenal · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TOT win 22.3% fair 4.49
Draw 23.1% fair 4.33
ARS win 54.6% fair 1.83
Expected Goals
TOT
0.96
—
1.80
ARS
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.0% | fair 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.0% | fair 2.08 |
| Both teams to score | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOT 0-1 ARS | 11.4% | |
| TOT 1-1 ARS | 10.9% | |
| TOT 0-2 ARS | 10.3% | |
| TOT 1-2 ARS | 9.8% | |
| TOT 0-0 ARS | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 11.4 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOT goals · Columns: ARS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).