BOU vs HUL
AFC Bournemouth (home) vs Hull City · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
BOU win 58.9% fair 1.70
Draw 20.8% fair 4.80
HUL win 20.3% fair 4.92
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 62.4% / 20.0% / 17.6%.
Expected Goals
BOU
2.14
—
1.05
HUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.9% | fair 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.1% | fair 2.62 |
| Both teams to score | 57.4% | fair 1.74 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOU 2-1 HUL | 9.9% | |
| BOU 2-0 HUL | 9.4% | |
| BOU 1-1 HUL | 9.2% | |
| BOU 1-0 HUL | 8.8% | |
| BOU 3-1 HUL | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOU goals · Columns: HUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).