BOU vs HUL
AFC Bournemouth (home) vs Hull City · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BOU win 57.0% fair 1.75
Draw 22.0% fair 4.54
HUL win 21.0% fair 4.77
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 59.2% / 21.6% / 19.1%.
Expected Goals
BOU
1.95
—
1.01
HUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.1% | fair 2.32 |
| Both teams to score | 54.7% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOU 1-1 HUL | 10.2% | |
| BOU 1-0 HUL | 10.1% | |
| BOU 2-1 HUL | 10.0% | |
| BOU 2-0 HUL | 9.8% | |
| BOU 3-1 HUL | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.2 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOU goals · Columns: HUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).