EVE vs FUL
Everton (home) vs Fulham · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
EVE win 40.8% fair 2.45
Draw 27.4% fair 3.65
FUL win 31.8% fair 3.14
Expected Goals
EVE
1.27
—
1.10
FUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.2% | fair 2.37 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 57.8% | fair 1.73 |
| Both teams to score | 47.9% | fair 2.09 |
Most Likely Scores
| EVE 1-1 FUL | 13.1% | |
| EVE 1-0 FUL | 11.9% | |
| EVE 0-1 FUL | 10.3% | |
| EVE 0-0 FUL | 9.4% | |
| EVE 2-1 FUL | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EVE goals · Columns: FUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).