EVE vs FUL
Everton (home) vs Fulham · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
EVE win 42.4% fair 2.36
Draw 25.4% fair 3.93
FUL win 32.2% fair 3.10
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 42.0% / 25.6% / 32.4%.
Expected Goals
EVE
1.46
—
1.25
FUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | fair 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.2% | fair 2.03 |
| Both teams to score | 54.7% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| EVE 1-1 FUL | 12.2% | |
| EVE 1-0 FUL | 9.7% | |
| EVE 2-1 FUL | 8.9% | |
| EVE 0-1 FUL | 8.3% | |
| EVE 1-2 FUL | 7.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.2 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EVE goals · Columns: FUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).