CHE vs CRY
Chelsea (home) vs Crystal Palace · model confidence 84% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CHE win 57.9% fair 1.73
Draw 20.7% fair 4.83
CRY win 21.4% fair 4.67
Expected Goals
CHE
2.15
—
1.19
CRY
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.0% | fair 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.0% | fair 2.86 |
| Both teams to score | 61.6% | fair 1.62 |
Most Likely Scores
| CHE 2-1 CRY | 9.7% | |
| CHE 1-1 CRY | 9.0% | |
| CHE 2-0 CRY | 8.2% | |
| CHE 1-0 CRY | 7.6% | |
| CHE 3-1 CRY | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: CHE goals · Columns: CRY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).