HUL vs NFO
Hull City (home) vs Nottingham Forest · model confidence 74% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HUL win 33.5% fair 2.99
Draw 27.6% fair 3.62
NFO win 38.9% fair 2.57
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 31.3% / 28.3% / 40.4%.
Expected Goals
HUL
1.06
—
1.24
NFO
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.2% | fair 2.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 59.8% | fair 1.67 |
| Both teams to score | 46.3% | fair 2.16 |
Most Likely Scores
| HUL 1-1 NFO | 13.2% | |
| HUL 0-1 NFO | 12.5% | |
| HUL 1-0 NFO | 10.6% | |
| HUL 0-0 NFO | 10.1% | |
| HUL 1-2 NFO | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HUL goals · Columns: NFO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).