HUL vs NFO
Hull City (home) vs Nottingham Forest · model confidence 66%
Match Outcome
HUL win 31.7% fair 3.16
Draw 25.7% fair 3.90
NFO win 42.7% fair 2.34
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 28.3% / 26.1% / 45.6%.
Expected Goals
HUL
1.09
—
1.46
NFO
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.1% | fair 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.9% | fair 1.89 |
| Both teams to score | 51.1% | fair 1.96 |
Most Likely Scores
| HUL 1-1 NFO | 12.4% | |
| HUL 0-1 NFO | 11.3% | |
| HUL 1-2 NFO | 9.1% | |
| HUL 1-0 NFO | 8.5% | |
| HUL 0-2 NFO | 8.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HUL goals · Columns: NFO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).