BOU vs BHA
AFC Bournemouth (home) vs Brighton & Hove Albion · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BOU win 33.3% fair 3.00
Draw 22.4% fair 4.46
BHA win 44.3% fair 2.26
Expected Goals
BOU
1.54
—
1.88
BHA
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.5% | fair 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.5% | fair 2.99 |
| Both teams to score | 66.7% | fair 1.50 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOU 1-1 BHA | 9.4% | |
| BOU 1-2 BHA | 8.9% | |
| BOU 2-1 BHA | 7.3% | |
| BOU 2-2 BHA | 6.9% | |
| BOU 0-1 BHA | 6.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.4 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: BOU goals · Columns: BHA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).