BOU vs BHA
AFC Bournemouth (home) vs Brighton & Hove Albion · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
BOU win 39.0% fair 2.57
Draw 23.1% fair 4.33
BHA win 38.0% fair 2.63
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 38.0% / 22.9% / 39.1%.
Expected Goals
BOU
1.65
—
1.68
BHA
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.6% | fair 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.4% | fair 2.82 |
| Both teams to score | 65.7% | fair 1.52 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOU 1-1 BHA | 9.9% | |
| BOU 1-2 BHA | 8.3% | |
| BOU 2-1 BHA | 8.2% | |
| BOU 2-2 BHA | 6.9% | |
| BOU 0-1 BHA | 6.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.9 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: BOU goals · Columns: BHA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).