TOT vs FUL
Tottenham Hotspur (home) vs Fulham · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
TOT win 48.8% fair 2.05
Draw 22.1% fair 4.52
FUL win 29.1% fair 3.44
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 49.5% / 21.8% / 28.7%.
Expected Goals
TOT
1.97
—
1.47
FUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.8% | fair 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.2% | fair 3.01 |
| Both teams to score | 66.3% | fair 1.51 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOT 1-1 FUL | 9.3% | |
| TOT 2-1 FUL | 9.2% | |
| TOT 1-2 FUL | 6.8% | |
| TOT 2-2 FUL | 6.7% | |
| TOT 1-0 FUL | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: TOT goals · Columns: FUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).