MCI vs LEE
Manchester City (home) vs Leeds United · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
MCI win 69.7% fair 1.43
Draw 16.5% fair 6.06
LEE win 13.8% fair 7.26
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 73.4% / 15.4% / 11.2%.
Expected Goals
MCI
2.65
—
0.96
LEE
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.9% | fair 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.1% | fair 3.32 |
| Both teams to score | 57.2% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| MCI 2-0 LEE | 9.5% | |
| MCI 2-1 LEE | 9.1% | |
| MCI 3-0 LEE | 8.4% | |
| MCI 3-1 LEE | 8.1% | |
| MCI 1-0 LEE | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: MCI goals · Columns: LEE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).