MCI vs LEE
Manchester City (home) vs Leeds United · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MCI win 65.9% fair 1.52
Draw 18.6% fair 5.37
LEE win 15.4% fair 6.48
Expected Goals
MCI
2.32
—
0.93
LEE
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.2% | fair 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.8% | fair 2.72 |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | fair 1.83 |
Most Likely Scores
| MCI 2-0 LEE | 10.4% | |
| MCI 2-1 LEE | 9.7% | |
| MCI 1-0 LEE | 8.9% | |
| MCI 1-1 LEE | 8.4% | |
| MCI 3-0 LEE | 8.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MCI goals · Columns: LEE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).