AVL vs EVE
Aston Villa (home) vs Everton · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
AVL win 51.2% fair 1.95
Draw 24.6% fair 4.06
EVE win 24.2% fair 4.14
Expected Goals
AVL
1.63
—
1.01
EVE
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.1% | fair 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.9% | fair 1.97 |
| Both teams to score | 51.1% | fair 1.96 |
Most Likely Scores
| AVL 1-1 EVE | 11.7% | |
| AVL 1-0 EVE | 11.6% | |
| AVL 2-1 EVE | 9.6% | |
| AVL 2-0 EVE | 9.5% | |
| AVL 0-1 EVE | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.7 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: AVL goals · Columns: EVE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).