AVL vs EVE
Aston Villa (home) vs Everton · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
AVL win 50.2% fair 1.99
Draw 23.8% fair 4.21
EVE win 26.0% fair 3.84
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 50.9% / 23.7% / 25.3%.
Expected Goals
AVL
1.73
—
1.15
EVE
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.0% | fair 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.0% | fair 2.22 |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| AVL 1-1 EVE | 11.2% | |
| AVL 1-0 EVE | 9.7% | |
| AVL 2-1 EVE | 9.7% | |
| AVL 2-0 EVE | 8.4% | |
| AVL 0-1 EVE | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.2 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AVL goals · Columns: EVE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).