COV vs IPS
Coventry City (home) vs Ipswich Town · model confidence 67% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
COV win 38.9% fair 2.57
Draw 24.7% fair 4.04
IPS win 36.3% fair 2.75
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 37.5% / 24.9% / 37.6%.
Expected Goals
COV
1.43
—
1.44
IPS
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.8% | fair 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.2% | fair 2.21 |
| Both teams to score | 58.1% | fair 1.72 |
Most Likely Scores
| COV 1-1 IPS | 11.7% | |
| COV 1-2 IPS | 8.4% | |
| COV 2-1 IPS | 8.4% | |
| COV 0-1 IPS | 8.1% | |
| COV 1-0 IPS | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: COV goals · Columns: IPS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).