COV vs IPS
Coventry City (home) vs Ipswich Town · model confidence 56%
Match Outcome
COV win 40.3% fair 2.48
Draw 24.5% fair 4.09
IPS win 35.2% fair 2.84
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 38.7% / 24.6% / 36.7%.
Expected Goals
COV
1.49
—
1.44
IPS
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.0% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.0% | fair 2.28 |
| Both teams to score | 59.1% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| COV 1-1 IPS | 11.5% | |
| COV 2-1 IPS | 8.5% | |
| COV 1-2 IPS | 8.3% | |
| COV 1-0 IPS | 8.0% | |
| COV 0-1 IPS | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: COV goals · Columns: IPS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).