LIV vs SUN
Liverpool (home) vs Sunderland · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
LIV win 71.6% fair 1.40
Draw 15.9% fair 6.27
SUN win 12.5% fair 8.03
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 75.6% / 14.7% / 9.7%.
Expected Goals
LIV
2.66
—
0.86
SUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.3% | fair 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.7% | fair 3.16 |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIV 2-0 SUN | 10.5% | |
| LIV 3-0 SUN | 9.3% | |
| LIV 2-1 SUN | 9.0% | |
| LIV 3-1 SUN | 8.0% | |
| LIV 1-0 SUN | 7.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIV goals · Columns: SUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).