LIV vs SUN
Liverpool (home) vs Sunderland · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LIV win 69.1% fair 1.45
Draw 18.0% fair 5.57
SUN win 12.9% fair 7.76
Expected Goals
LIV
2.30
—
0.76
SUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.2% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.8% | fair 2.45 |
| Both teams to score | 48.1% | fair 2.08 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIV 2-0 SUN | 12.3% | |
| LIV 1-0 SUN | 10.7% | |
| LIV 3-0 SUN | 9.5% | |
| LIV 2-1 SUN | 9.4% | |
| LIV 1-1 SUN | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIV goals · Columns: SUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).