BRE vs ARS
Brentford (home) vs Arsenal · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BRE win 22.0% fair 4.55
Draw 23.6% fair 4.24
ARS win 54.4% fair 1.84
Expected Goals
BRE
0.93
—
1.74
ARS
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.9% | fair 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.1% | fair 2.00 |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | fair 2.01 |
Most Likely Scores
| BRE 0-1 ARS | 12.1% | |
| BRE 1-1 ARS | 11.2% | |
| BRE 0-2 ARS | 10.5% | |
| BRE 1-2 ARS | 9.8% | |
| BRE 0-0 ARS | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 12.1 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: BRE goals · Columns: ARS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).