BRE vs ARS
Brentford (home) vs Arsenal · model confidence 83%
Match Outcome
BRE win 20.2% fair 4.96
Draw 21.6% fair 4.63
ARS win 58.2% fair 1.72
Expected Goals
BRE
0.94
—
1.96
ARS
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.5% | fair 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.5% | fair 2.25 |
| Both teams to score | 52.4% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| BRE 0-1 ARS | 10.8% | |
| BRE 0-2 ARS | 10.6% | |
| BRE 1-1 ARS | 10.1% | |
| BRE 1-2 ARS | 9.9% | |
| BRE 0-3 ARS | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 10.8 | 10.6 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: BRE goals · Columns: ARS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).