SUN vs TOT
Sunderland (home) vs Tottenham Hotspur · model confidence 78% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
SUN win 31.8% fair 3.14
Draw 24.1% fair 4.16
TOT win 44.1% fair 2.27
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 29.8% / 24.1% / 46.1%.
Expected Goals
SUN
1.29
—
1.66
TOT
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.5% | fair 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.5% | fair 2.30 |
| Both teams to score | 58.7% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| SUN 1-1 TOT | 11.2% | |
| SUN 1-2 TOT | 9.3% | |
| SUN 0-1 TOT | 8.7% | |
| SUN 2-1 TOT | 7.2% | |
| SUN 0-2 TOT | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: SUN goals · Columns: TOT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).