SUN vs TOT
Sunderland (home) vs Tottenham Hotspur · model confidence 72%
Match Outcome
SUN win 34.2% fair 2.92
Draw 22.7% fair 4.40
TOT win 43.1% fair 2.32
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 32.0% / 22.5% / 45.5%.
Expected Goals
SUN
1.52
—
1.85
TOT
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.5% | fair 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.5% | fair 2.90 |
| Both teams to score | 65.9% | fair 1.52 |
Most Likely Scores
| SUN 1-1 TOT | 9.7% | |
| SUN 1-2 TOT | 8.9% | |
| SUN 2-1 TOT | 7.4% | |
| SUN 2-2 TOT | 6.8% | |
| SUN 0-1 TOT | 6.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: SUN goals · Columns: TOT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).