CRY vs HUL
Crystal Palace (home) vs Hull City · model confidence 69%
Match Outcome
CRY win 58.2% fair 1.72
Draw 21.9% fair 4.57
HUL win 19.9% fair 5.01
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 61.2% / 21.4% / 17.4%.
Expected Goals
CRY
1.96
—
0.94
HUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.2% | fair 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.8% | fair 2.23 |
| Both teams to score | 52.2% | fair 1.92 |
Most Likely Scores
| CRY 1-0 HUL | 10.9% | |
| CRY 2-0 HUL | 10.6% | |
| CRY 1-1 HUL | 10.2% | |
| CRY 2-1 HUL | 9.9% | |
| CRY 3-0 HUL | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CRY goals · Columns: HUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).