CRY vs HUL
Crystal Palace (home) vs Hull City · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CRY win 52.7% fair 1.90
Draw 23.8% fair 4.19
HUL win 23.5% fair 4.26
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 54.0% / 23.8% / 22.2%.
Expected Goals
CRY
1.72
—
1.01
HUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
| Both teams to score | 52.3% | fair 1.91 |
Most Likely Scores
| CRY 1-1 HUL | 11.3% | |
| CRY 1-0 HUL | 11.2% | |
| CRY 2-1 HUL | 9.7% | |
| CRY 2-0 HUL | 9.6% | |
| CRY 0-1 HUL | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CRY goals · Columns: HUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).