MUN vs BRE
Manchester United (home) vs Brentford · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
MUN win 45.1% fair 2.22
Draw 23.5% fair 4.26
BRE win 31.4% fair 3.18
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 45.1% / 23.4% / 31.5%.
Expected Goals
MUN
1.73
—
1.41
BRE
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.7% | fair 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.3% | fair 2.54 |
| Both teams to score | 62.1% | fair 1.61 |
Most Likely Scores
| MUN 1-1 BRE | 10.6% | |
| MUN 2-1 BRE | 9.1% | |
| MUN 1-0 BRE | 7.5% | |
| MUN 1-2 BRE | 7.5% | |
| MUN 2-0 BRE | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MUN goals · Columns: BRE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).