MUN vs BRE
Manchester United (home) vs Brentford · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MUN win 41.9% fair 2.39
Draw 24.0% fair 4.16
BRE win 34.1% fair 2.93
Expected Goals
MUN
1.60
—
1.44
BRE
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.5% | fair 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.5% | fair 2.41 |
| Both teams to score | 60.9% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| MUN 1-1 BRE | 11.0% | |
| MUN 2-1 BRE | 8.8% | |
| MUN 1-2 BRE | 7.9% | |
| MUN 1-0 BRE | 7.7% | |
| MUN 0-1 BRE | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.0 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MUN goals · Columns: BRE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).