EVE vs LIV
Everton (home) vs Liverpool · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
EVE win 24.8% fair 4.04
Draw 25.3% fair 3.96
LIV win 50.0% fair 2.00
Expected Goals
EVE
0.94
—
1.56
LIV
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.8% | fair 2.18 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.2% | fair 1.84 |
| Both teams to score | 48.3% | fair 2.07 |
Most Likely Scores
| EVE 0-1 LIV | 12.8% | |
| EVE 1-1 LIV | 12.0% | |
| EVE 0-2 LIV | 10.0% | |
| EVE 1-2 LIV | 9.4% | |
| EVE 0-0 LIV | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 12.8 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: EVE goals · Columns: LIV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).