ARS vs MCI
Arsenal (home) vs Manchester City · model confidence 88% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
ARS win 50.1% fair 2.00
Draw 24.3% fair 4.12
MCI win 25.6% fair 3.90
Expected Goals
ARS
1.67
—
1.11
MCI
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.4% | fair 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.6% | fair 2.10 |
| Both teams to score | 54.2% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| ARS 1-1 MCI | 11.5% | |
| ARS 1-0 MCI | 10.4% | |
| ARS 2-1 MCI | 9.6% | |
| ARS 2-0 MCI | 8.7% | |
| ARS 0-1 MCI | 6.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.5 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ARS goals · Columns: MCI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).