ARS vs MCI
Arsenal (home) vs Manchester City · model confidence 86%
Match Outcome
ARS win 52.4% fair 1.91
Draw 23.2% fair 4.31
MCI win 24.4% fair 4.09
Expected Goals
ARS
1.80
—
1.13
MCI
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.2% | fair 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.8% | fair 2.29 |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| ARS 1-1 MCI | 10.8% | |
| ARS 2-1 MCI | 9.8% | |
| ARS 1-0 MCI | 9.6% | |
| ARS 2-0 MCI | 8.6% | |
| ARS 1-2 MCI | 6.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ARS goals · Columns: MCI goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).