BHA vs NEW
Brighton & Hove Albion (home) vs Newcastle United · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BHA win 51.7% fair 1.93
Draw 21.8% fair 4.58
NEW win 26.4% fair 3.78
Expected Goals
BHA
2.01
—
1.36
NEW
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.5% | fair 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.5% | fair 2.90 |
| Both teams to score | 64.5% | fair 1.55 |
Most Likely Scores
| BHA 2-1 NEW | 9.4% | |
| BHA 1-1 NEW | 9.4% | |
| BHA 2-0 NEW | 6.9% | |
| BHA 1-0 NEW | 6.9% | |
| BHA 2-2 NEW | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: BHA goals · Columns: NEW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).