BHA vs NEW
Brighton & Hove Albion (home) vs Newcastle United · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
BHA win 40.0% fair 2.50
Draw 23.4% fair 4.28
NEW win 36.7% fair 2.73
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 39.3% / 23.3% / 37.5%.
Expected Goals
BHA
1.64
—
1.60
NEW
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.8% | fair 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.2% | fair 2.69 |
| Both teams to score | 64.3% | fair 1.56 |
Most Likely Scores
| BHA 1-1 NEW | 10.3% | |
| BHA 2-1 NEW | 8.4% | |
| BHA 1-2 NEW | 8.2% | |
| BHA 2-2 NEW | 6.7% | |
| BHA 1-0 NEW | 6.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: BHA goals · Columns: NEW goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).