NFO vs CHE
Nottingham Forest (home) vs Chelsea · model confidence 82% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NFO win 31.9% fair 3.14
Draw 24.9% fair 4.02
CHE win 43.3% fair 2.31
Expected Goals
NFO
1.24
—
1.56
CHE
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.9% | fair 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.1% | fair 2.12 |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| NFO 1-1 CHE | 11.8% | |
| NFO 0-1 CHE | 9.5% | |
| NFO 1-2 CHE | 9.2% | |
| NFO 1-0 CHE | 7.6% | |
| NFO 0-2 CHE | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NFO goals · Columns: CHE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).