NFO vs CHE
Nottingham Forest (home) vs Chelsea · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
NFO win 31.6% fair 3.17
Draw 24.7% fair 4.05
CHE win 43.7% fair 2.29
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 29.6% / 24.8% / 45.6%.
Expected Goals
NFO
1.22
—
1.58
CHE
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.2% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.8% | fair 2.14 |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| NFO 1-1 CHE | 11.7% | |
| NFO 0-1 CHE | 9.6% | |
| NFO 1-2 CHE | 9.3% | |
| NFO 0-2 CHE | 7.6% | |
| NFO 1-0 CHE | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NFO goals · Columns: CHE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).