IPS vs AVL
Ipswich Town (home) vs Aston Villa · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
IPS win 29.1% fair 3.44
Draw 23.1% fair 4.34
AVL win 47.8% fair 2.09
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 26.4% / 22.9% / 50.7%.
Expected Goals
IPS
1.26
—
1.83
AVL
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.6% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.4% | fair 2.48 |
| Both teams to score | 60.1% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| IPS 1-1 AVL | 10.5% | |
| IPS 1-2 AVL | 9.6% | |
| IPS 0-1 AVL | 8.3% | |
| IPS 0-2 AVL | 7.6% | |
| IPS 2-1 AVL | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: IPS goals · Columns: AVL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).