IPS vs AVL
Ipswich Town (home) vs Aston Villa · model confidence 68%
Match Outcome
IPS win 29.6% fair 3.38
Draw 22.8% fair 4.38
AVL win 47.5% fair 2.10
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 26.1% / 22.6% / 51.4%.
Expected Goals
IPS
1.28
—
1.87
AVL
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.9% | fair 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.1% | fair 2.56 |
| Both teams to score | 61.0% | fair 1.64 |
Most Likely Scores
| IPS 1-1 AVL | 10.3% | |
| IPS 1-2 AVL | 9.6% | |
| IPS 0-1 AVL | 8.0% | |
| IPS 0-2 AVL | 7.5% | |
| IPS 2-1 AVL | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: IPS goals · Columns: AVL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).