FUL vs BOU
Fulham (home) vs AFC Bournemouth · model confidence 77%
Match Outcome
FUL win 43.3% fair 2.31
Draw 23.5% fair 4.25
BOU win 33.2% fair 3.02
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 43.1% / 23.4% / 33.5%.
Expected Goals
FUL
1.69
—
1.47
BOU
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.2% | fair 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.8% | fair 2.58 |
| Both teams to score | 62.8% | fair 1.59 |
Most Likely Scores
| FUL 1-1 BOU | 10.5% | |
| FUL 2-1 BOU | 8.9% | |
| FUL 1-2 BOU | 7.7% | |
| FUL 1-0 BOU | 7.2% | |
| FUL 2-2 BOU | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.5 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FUL goals · Columns: BOU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).