FUL vs BOU
Fulham (home) vs AFC Bournemouth · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
FUL win 40.5% fair 2.47
Draw 24.7% fair 4.04
BOU win 34.7% fair 2.88
Expected Goals
FUL
1.49
—
1.39
BOU
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.0% | fair 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.0% | fair 2.22 |
| Both teams to score | 58.2% | fair 1.72 |
Most Likely Scores
| FUL 1-1 BOU | 11.6% | |
| FUL 2-1 BOU | 8.7% | |
| FUL 1-0 BOU | 8.4% | |
| FUL 1-2 BOU | 8.1% | |
| FUL 0-1 BOU | 7.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: FUL goals · Columns: BOU goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).