LEE vs COV
Leeds United (home) vs Coventry City · model confidence 72% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEE win 56.3% fair 1.78
Draw 23.0% fair 4.35
COV win 20.8% fair 4.82
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 58.5% / 22.8% / 18.7%.
Expected Goals
LEE
1.82
—
0.92
COV
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | fair 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.5% | fair 2.06 |
| Both teams to score | 50.4% | fair 1.99 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEE 1-0 COV | 11.8% | |
| LEE 1-1 COV | 10.8% | |
| LEE 2-0 COV | 10.7% | |
| LEE 2-1 COV | 9.8% | |
| LEE 3-0 COV | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 10.8 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEE goals · Columns: COV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).