LEE vs COV
Leeds United (home) vs Coventry City · model confidence 63%
Match Outcome
LEE win 55.3% fair 1.81
Draw 22.1% fair 4.53
COV win 22.7% fair 4.41
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 58.1% / 21.6% / 20.4%.
Expected Goals
LEE
1.98
—
1.09
COV
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.1% | fair 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.9% | fair 2.45 |
| Both teams to score | 57.1% | fair 1.75 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEE 1-1 COV | 10.0% | |
| LEE 2-1 COV | 9.9% | |
| LEE 1-0 COV | 9.2% | |
| LEE 2-0 COV | 9.1% | |
| LEE 3-1 COV | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEE goals · Columns: COV goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).