MCI vs FUL
Manchester City (home) vs Fulham · model confidence 85% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MCI win 67.0% fair 1.49
Draw 18.2% fair 5.49
FUL win 14.8% fair 6.77
Expected Goals
MCI
2.36
—
0.93
FUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.8% | fair 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.2% | fair 2.76 |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | fair 1.82 |
Most Likely Scores
| MCI 2-0 FUL | 10.4% | |
| MCI 2-1 FUL | 9.7% | |
| MCI 1-0 FUL | 8.8% | |
| MCI 1-1 FUL | 8.2% | |
| MCI 3-0 FUL | 8.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MCI goals · Columns: FUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).