MCI vs FUL
Manchester City (home) vs Fulham · model confidence 82%
Match Outcome
MCI win 67.7% fair 1.48
Draw 17.3% fair 5.77
FUL win 14.9% fair 6.70
Expected Goals
MCI
2.55
—
1.02
FUL
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.2% | fair 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.8% | fair 3.25 |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | fair 1.70 |
Most Likely Scores
| MCI 2-1 FUL | 9.3% | |
| MCI 2-0 FUL | 9.2% | |
| MCI 3-1 FUL | 7.9% | |
| MCI 3-0 FUL | 7.8% | |
| MCI 1-1 FUL | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: MCI goals · Columns: FUL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).