AVL vs SUN
Aston Villa (home) vs Sunderland · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
AVL win 58.2% fair 1.72
Draw 20.9% fair 4.79
SUN win 20.9% fair 4.77
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 60.4% / 20.4% / 19.2%.
Expected Goals
AVL
2.13
—
1.12
SUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.0% | fair 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.0% | fair 2.70 |
| Both teams to score | 59.4% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| AVL 2-1 SUN | 9.9% | |
| AVL 1-1 SUN | 9.3% | |
| AVL 2-0 SUN | 8.8% | |
| AVL 1-0 SUN | 8.3% | |
| AVL 3-1 SUN | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AVL goals · Columns: SUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).