AVL vs SUN
Aston Villa (home) vs Sunderland · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
AVL win 59.2% fair 1.69
Draw 21.5% fair 4.66
SUN win 19.4% fair 5.16
Expected Goals
AVL
2.00
—
0.98
SUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.3% | fair 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.7% | fair 2.34 |
| Both teams to score | 54.1% | fair 1.85 |
Most Likely Scores
| AVL 1-0 SUN | 10.1% | |
| AVL 2-0 SUN | 10.1% | |
| AVL 1-1 SUN | 10.0% | |
| AVL 2-1 SUN | 10.0% | |
| AVL 3-0 SUN | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AVL goals · Columns: SUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).