HUL vs BHA
Hull City (home) vs Brighton & Hove Albion · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
HUL win 22.6% fair 4.43
Draw 21.3% fair 4.69
BHA win 56.1% fair 1.78
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 18.6% / 20.9% / 60.5%.
Expected Goals
HUL
1.04
—
2.05
BHA
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.7% | fair 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.3% | fair 2.48 |
| Both teams to score | 56.4% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| HUL 1-2 BHA | 9.9% | |
| HUL 1-1 BHA | 9.7% | |
| HUL 0-2 BHA | 9.5% | |
| HUL 0-1 BHA | 9.3% | |
| HUL 1-3 BHA | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: HUL goals · Columns: BHA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).