HUL vs BHA
Hull City (home) vs Brighton & Hove Albion · model confidence 67%
Match Outcome
HUL win 26.2% fair 3.82
Draw 22.1% fair 4.52
BHA win 51.7% fair 1.93
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 21.6% / 21.7% / 56.7%.
Expected Goals
HUL
1.14
—
1.97
BHA
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.2% | fair 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.8% | fair 2.51 |
| Both teams to score | 58.6% | fair 1.71 |
Most Likely Scores
| HUL 1-1 BHA | 10.0% | |
| HUL 1-2 BHA | 9.9% | |
| HUL 0-1 BHA | 8.8% | |
| HUL 0-2 BHA | 8.6% | |
| HUL 1-3 BHA | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: HUL goals · Columns: BHA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).