BRE vs EVE
Brentford (home) vs Everton · model confidence 78%
Match Outcome
BRE win 47.0% fair 2.13
Draw 24.6% fair 4.07
EVE win 28.5% fair 3.51
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 47.3% / 24.7% / 28.1%.
Expected Goals
BRE
1.61
—
1.19
EVE
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.0% | fair 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.0% | fair 2.13 |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | fair 1.80 |
Most Likely Scores
| BRE 1-1 EVE | 11.7% | |
| BRE 1-0 EVE | 9.8% | |
| BRE 2-1 EVE | 9.4% | |
| BRE 2-0 EVE | 7.9% | |
| BRE 0-1 EVE | 7.2% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.7 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BRE goals · Columns: EVE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).