LIV vs MUN
Liverpool (home) vs Manchester United · model confidence 83% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LIV win 60.7% fair 1.65
Draw 20.9% fair 4.80
MUN win 18.5% fair 5.42
Expected Goals
LIV
2.07
—
0.98
MUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.7% | fair 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.3% | fair 2.42 |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIV 2-0 MUN | 10.2% | |
| LIV 2-1 MUN | 9.9% | |
| LIV 1-0 MUN | 9.8% | |
| LIV 1-1 MUN | 9.6% | |
| LIV 3-0 MUN | 7.0% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIV goals · Columns: MUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).