LIV vs MUN
Liverpool (home) vs Manchester United · model confidence 79%
Match Outcome
LIV win 62.0% fair 1.61
Draw 19.6% fair 5.10
MUN win 18.4% fair 5.43
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 64.4% / 19.0% / 16.6%.
Expected Goals
LIV
2.27
—
1.07
MUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.0% | fair 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.0% | fair 2.86 |
| Both teams to score | 59.0% | fair 1.69 |
Most Likely Scores
| LIV 2-1 MUN | 9.8% | |
| LIV 2-0 MUN | 9.1% | |
| LIV 1-1 MUN | 8.6% | |
| LIV 1-0 MUN | 8.0% | |
| LIV 3-1 MUN | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: LIV goals · Columns: MUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).