CHE vs LEE
Chelsea (home) vs Leeds United · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
CHE win 55.3% fair 1.81
Draw 22.0% fair 4.54
LEE win 22.7% fair 4.41
Expected Goals
CHE
1.96
—
1.13
LEE
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.8% | fair 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.2% | fair 2.49 |
| Both teams to score | 58.3% | fair 1.72 |
Most Likely Scores
| CHE 1-1 LEE | 10.1% | |
| CHE 2-1 LEE | 9.9% | |
| CHE 1-0 LEE | 8.9% | |
| CHE 2-0 LEE | 8.7% | |
| CHE 3-1 LEE | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.1 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: CHE goals · Columns: LEE goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).