BOU vs NFO
AFC Bournemouth (home) vs Nottingham Forest · model confidence 80% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
BOU win 46.8% fair 2.14
Draw 25.0% fair 3.99
NFO win 28.2% fair 3.55
Expected Goals
BOU
1.56
—
1.14
NFO
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | fair 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.4% | fair 2.03 |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | fair 1.86 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOU 1-1 NFO | 12.0% | |
| BOU 1-0 NFO | 10.5% | |
| BOU 2-1 NFO | 9.3% | |
| BOU 2-0 NFO | 8.2% | |
| BOU 0-1 NFO | 7.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOU goals · Columns: NFO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).