BOU vs NFO
AFC Bournemouth (home) vs Nottingham Forest · model confidence 75%
Match Outcome
BOU win 45.2% fair 2.21
Draw 24.6% fair 4.06
NFO win 30.2% fair 3.32
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 45.2% / 24.8% / 30.0%.
Expected Goals
BOU
1.58
—
1.24
NFO
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% | fair 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.4% | fair 2.16 |
| Both teams to score | 56.5% | fair 1.77 |
Most Likely Scores
| BOU 1-1 NFO | 11.7% | |
| BOU 1-0 NFO | 9.4% | |
| BOU 2-1 NFO | 9.2% | |
| BOU 2-0 NFO | 7.4% | |
| BOU 0-1 NFO | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.7 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: BOU goals · Columns: NFO goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).