COV vs CRY
Coventry City (home) vs Crystal Palace · model confidence 69%
Match Outcome
COV win 29.1% fair 3.43
Draw 23.8% fair 4.20
CRY win 47.0% fair 2.13
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 25.5% / 23.8% / 50.7%.
Expected Goals
COV
1.15
—
1.72
CRY
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.9% | fair 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.1% | fair 2.22 |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | fair 1.78 |
Most Likely Scores
| COV 1-1 CRY | 11.2% | |
| COV 0-1 CRY | 9.7% | |
| COV 1-2 CRY | 9.6% | |
| COV 0-2 CRY | 8.4% | |
| COV 1-0 CRY | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: COV goals · Columns: CRY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).