COV vs CRY
Coventry City (home) vs Crystal Palace · model confidence 75% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
COV win 31.3% fair 3.20
Draw 24.6% fair 4.06
CRY win 44.1% fair 2.27
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 29.0% / 24.7% / 46.3%.
Expected Goals
COV
1.21
—
1.60
CRY
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.2% | fair 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.8% | fair 2.14 |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | fair 1.79 |
Most Likely Scores
| COV 1-1 CRY | 11.7% | |
| COV 0-1 CRY | 9.6% | |
| COV 1-2 CRY | 9.3% | |
| COV 0-2 CRY | 7.7% | |
| COV 1-0 CRY | 7.3% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: COV goals · Columns: CRY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).