TOT vs IPS
Tottenham Hotspur (home) vs Ipswich Town · model confidence 64%
Match Outcome
TOT win 59.0% fair 1.70
Draw 20.0% fair 5.00
IPS win 21.0% fair 4.75
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is low (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 62.7% / 18.9% / 18.4%.
Expected Goals
TOT
2.34
—
1.20
IPS
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.7% | fair 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.3% | fair 3.20 |
| Both teams to score | 63.3% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOT 2-1 IPS | 9.5% | |
| TOT 1-1 IPS | 8.1% | |
| TOT 2-0 IPS | 7.9% | |
| TOT 3-1 IPS | 7.4% | |
| TOT 1-0 IPS | 6.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: TOT goals · Columns: IPS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).