TOT vs IPS
Tottenham Hotspur (home) vs Ipswich Town · model confidence 73% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
TOT win 58.3% fair 1.71
Draw 20.6% fair 4.85
IPS win 21.1% fair 4.75
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 60.9% / 20.0% / 19.1%.
Expected Goals
TOT
2.18
—
1.15
IPS
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.7% | fair 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35.3% | fair 2.84 |
| Both teams to score | 60.6% | fair 1.65 |
Most Likely Scores
| TOT 2-1 IPS | 9.8% | |
| TOT 1-1 IPS | 9.0% | |
| TOT 2-0 IPS | 8.5% | |
| TOT 1-0 IPS | 7.8% | |
| TOT 3-1 IPS | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: TOT goals · Columns: IPS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).