NEW vs ARS
Newcastle United (home) vs Arsenal · model confidence 86% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
NEW win 24.5% fair 4.09
Draw 24.4% fair 4.09
ARS win 51.1% fair 1.96
Expected Goals
NEW
0.99
—
1.65
ARS
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.3% | fair 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.7% | fair 1.97 |
| Both teams to score | 50.9% | fair 1.96 |
Most Likely Scores
| NEW 0-1 ARS | 11.7% | |
| NEW 1-1 ARS | 11.6% | |
| NEW 0-2 ARS | 9.7% | |
| NEW 1-2 ARS | 9.6% | |
| NEW 0-0 ARS | 7.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NEW goals · Columns: ARS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).