NEW vs ARS
Newcastle United (home) vs Arsenal · model confidence 84%
Match Outcome
NEW win 26.4% fair 3.79
Draw 24.1% fair 4.16
ARS win 49.5% fair 2.02
Expected Goals
NEW
1.09
—
1.69
ARS
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.7% | fair 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 47.3% | fair 2.12 |
| Both teams to score | 54.2% | fair 1.84 |
Most Likely Scores
| NEW 1-1 ARS | 11.4% | |
| NEW 0-1 ARS | 10.4% | |
| NEW 1-2 ARS | 9.7% | |
| NEW 0-2 ARS | 8.8% | |
| NEW 1-0 ARS | 6.7% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.4 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: NEW goals · Columns: ARS goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).