MUN vs AVL
Manchester United (home) vs Aston Villa · model confidence 81% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
MUN win 38.9% fair 2.57
Draw 24.3% fair 4.12
AVL win 36.9% fair 2.71
Expected Goals
MUN
1.51
—
1.50
AVL
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.7% | fair 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.3% | fair 2.37 |
| Both teams to score | 60.4% | fair 1.66 |
Most Likely Scores
| MUN 1-1 AVL | 11.2% | |
| MUN 2-1 AVL | 8.4% | |
| MUN 1-2 AVL | 8.4% | |
| MUN 1-0 AVL | 7.5% | |
| MUN 0-1 AVL | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.2 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: MUN goals · Columns: AVL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).