MUN vs AVL
Manchester United (home) vs Aston Villa · model confidence 76%
Match Outcome
MUN win 42.2% fair 2.37
Draw 23.5% fair 4.26
AVL win 34.3% fair 2.92
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 41.8% / 23.4% / 34.8%.
Expected Goals
MUN
1.68
—
1.52
AVL
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.9% | fair 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.1% | fair 2.62 |
| Both teams to score | 63.4% | fair 1.58 |
Most Likely Scores
| MUN 1-1 AVL | 10.4% | |
| MUN 2-1 AVL | 8.8% | |
| MUN 1-2 AVL | 7.9% | |
| MUN 1-0 AVL | 6.9% | |
| MUN 2-2 AVL | 6.6% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.4 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: MUN goals · Columns: AVL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).