LEE vs TOT
Leeds United (home) vs Tottenham Hotspur · model confidence 72%
Match Outcome
LEE win 38.7% fair 2.58
Draw 23.0% fair 4.35
TOT win 38.3% fair 2.61
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 37.4% / 22.8% / 39.8%.
Expected Goals
LEE
1.65
—
1.71
TOT
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.3% | fair 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.7% | fair 2.88 |
| Both teams to score | 66.2% | fair 1.51 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEE 1-1 TOT | 9.8% | |
| LEE 1-2 TOT | 8.4% | |
| LEE 2-1 TOT | 8.1% | |
| LEE 2-2 TOT | 6.9% | |
| LEE 0-1 TOT | 5.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.8 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: LEE goals · Columns: TOT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).