LEE vs TOT
Leeds United (home) vs Tottenham Hotspur · model confidence 78% · lineup adj: outside fetch window
Match Outcome
LEE win 39.5% fair 2.53
Draw 24.9% fair 4.02
TOT win 35.6% fair 2.81
Probabilities are shrunk toward the league prior because rating confidence is medium (limited sample / squad uncertainty). Raw model: 38.7% / 25.0% / 36.3%.
Expected Goals
LEE
1.45
—
1.40
TOT
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.3% | fair 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45.7% | fair 2.19 |
| Both teams to score | 57.7% | fair 1.73 |
Most Likely Scores
| LEE 1-1 TOT | 11.7% | |
| LEE 2-1 TOT | 8.5% | |
| LEE 1-0 TOT | 8.4% | |
| LEE 1-2 TOT | 8.2% | |
| LEE 0-1 TOT | 8.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: LEE goals · Columns: TOT goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).