ARS vs BVB
Arsenal (home) vs Borussia Dortmund · model confidence 87%
Match Outcome
ARS win 66.0% fair 1.52
Draw 19.2% fair 5.22
BVB win 14.8% fair 6.74
Cross-league European prediction: domestic live ratings shifted by league-strength offsets. Domestic Power tables are not comparable across leagues.
Expected Goals
ARS
2.14
—
0.83
BVB
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.9% | fair 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.1% | fair 2.32 |
| Both teams to score | 49.7% | fair 2.01 |
Most Likely Scores
| ARS 2-0 BVB | 11.8% | |
| ARS 1-0 BVB | 11.0% | |
| ARS 2-1 BVB | 9.8% | |
| ARS 1-1 BVB | 9.1% | |
| ARS 3-0 BVB | 8.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: ARS goals · Columns: BVB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).
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