ARS vs RMA
Arsenal (home) vs Real Madrid · model confidence 88%
Match Outcome
ARS win 62.9% fair 1.59
Draw 19.0% fair 5.26
RMA win 18.1% fair 5.53
Cross-league European prediction: domestic live ratings shifted by league-strength offsets. Domestic Power tables are not comparable across leagues.
Expected Goals
ARS
2.28
—
1.09
RMA
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.3% | fair 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.7% | fair 2.89 |
| Both teams to score | 59.6% | fair 1.68 |
Most Likely Scores
| ARS 2-1 RMA | 9.7% | |
| ARS 2-0 RMA | 8.9% | |
| ARS 1-1 RMA | 8.6% | |
| ARS 1-0 RMA | 7.9% | |
| ARS 3-1 RMA | 7.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: ARS goals · Columns: RMA goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).
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