AVL vs BVB
Aston Villa (home) vs Borussia Dortmund · model confidence 85%
Match Outcome
AVL win 46.3% fair 2.16
Draw 22.7% fair 4.40
BVB win 30.9% fair 3.23
Cross-league European prediction: domestic live ratings shifted by league-strength offsets. Domestic Power tables are not comparable across leagues.
Expected Goals
AVL
1.77
—
1.41
BVB
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.5% | fair 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.5% | fair 2.60 |
| Both teams to score | 62.7% | fair 1.60 |
Most Likely Scores
| AVL 1-1 BVB | 10.4% | |
| AVL 2-1 BVB | 9.2% | |
| AVL 1-0 BVB | 7.4% | |
| AVL 1-2 BVB | 7.3% | |
| AVL 2-0 BVB | 6.5% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.4 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: AVL goals · Columns: BVB goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).
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