AVL vs PSG
Aston Villa (home) vs Paris Saint-Germain · model confidence 86%
Match Outcome
AVL win 41.5% fair 2.41
Draw 21.6% fair 4.62
PSG win 36.9% fair 2.71
Cross-league European prediction: domestic live ratings shifted by league-strength offsets. Domestic Power tables are not comparable across leagues.
Expected Goals
AVL
1.84
—
1.75
PSG
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.6% | fair 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30.4% | fair 3.29 |
| Both teams to score | 69.6% | fair 1.44 |
Most Likely Scores
| AVL 1-1 PSG | 8.9% | |
| AVL 2-1 PSG | 8.2% | |
| AVL 1-2 PSG | 7.8% | |
| AVL 2-2 PSG | 7.2% | |
| AVL 1-0 PSG | 5.1% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.9 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: AVL goals · Columns: PSG goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).
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