ATM vs BAY
Atlético Madrid (home) vs Bayern Munich · model confidence 87%
Match Outcome
ATM win 28.3% fair 3.53
Draw 19.5% fair 5.12
BAY win 52.1% fair 1.92
Cross-league European prediction: domestic live ratings shifted by league-strength offsets. Domestic Power tables are not comparable across leagues.
Expected Goals
ATM
1.64
—
2.35
BAY
| Over 2.5 goals | 76.0% | fair 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 24.0% | fair 4.17 |
| Both teams to score | 72.9% | fair 1.37 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATM 1-2 BAY | 8.4% | |
| ATM 1-1 BAY | 7.1% | |
| ATM 2-2 BAY | 6.9% | |
| ATM 1-3 BAY | 6.6% | |
| ATM 2-1 BAY | 5.9% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 2.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Rows: ATM goals · Columns: BAY goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).
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