ATM vs MUN
Atlético Madrid (home) vs Manchester United · model confidence 82% · pregame locked (10-13 · FT 2-0 )
Probabilities below are the pregame model (ratings as they stood before kickoff) — the same numbers used on Fixtures and Over 2.5 calibration. They are not recomputed with today’s live ratings.
Match Outcome
ATM win 47.5% fair 2.11
Draw 21.4% fair 4.67
MUN win 31.1% fair 3.21
Cross-league European prediction: domestic live ratings shifted by league-strength offsets. Domestic Power tables are not comparable across leagues.
Expected Goals
ATM
1.96
—
1.56
MUN
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.2% | fair 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 31.8% | fair 3.15 |
| Both teams to score | 67.8% | fair 1.48 |
Most Likely Scores
| ATM 1-1 MUN | 9.1% | |
| ATM 2-1 MUN | 8.9% | |
| ATM 1-2 MUN | 7.0% | |
| ATM 2-2 MUN | 6.9% | |
| ATM 1-0 MUN | 5.8% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.1 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: ATM goals · Columns: MUN goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).
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