FCB vs AVL
Barcelona (home) vs Aston Villa · model confidence 86%
Match Outcome
FCB win 63.9% fair 1.56
Draw 16.1% fair 6.19
AVL win 19.9% fair 5.02
Cross-league European prediction: domestic live ratings shifted by league-strength offsets. Domestic Power tables are not comparable across leagues.
Expected Goals
FCB
3.00
—
1.64
AVL
| Over 2.5 goals | 84.2% | fair 1.19 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 15.8% | fair 6.33 |
| Both teams to score | 76.6% | fair 1.31 |
Most Likely Scores
| FCB 3-1 AVL | 7.1% | |
| FCB 2-1 AVL | 7.1% | |
| FCB 3-2 AVL | 5.8% | |
| FCB 2-2 AVL | 5.8% | |
| FCB 4-1 AVL | 5.4% |
Scoreline Matrix
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 3.6 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
Rows: FCB goals · Columns: AVL goals · Cell values in %. Low scorelines carry the Dixon-Coles correction (rho = -0.10).
Try Another Matchup
Pick two big-five teams currently in this competition's fixture list.